The Battle of the Cups: How a Hamptons Shop is Predicting Political Wins
The famed “cup count” at The Monogram Shop and why it’s shockingly accurate
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Admit it.
If you spend any time on the eastern end of Long Island in the summertime, you’ve probably walked by the Monogram Shop in East Hampton.
It’s the kind of place where you find hand towels that say, “Hurry back, we’re all talking about you”…
… and terry cosmetic bags with the words, “Emotional Baggage.”
Turns out, this little shop in the Hamptons, which opened in 1997, is also in the game of politics.
Call it the battle of the cups.
Since Bush and Cheney battled Kerry and Edwards in 2004, owner Valerie Smith has been selling plastic cups branded with the candidates’ names and keeping a tally of how many cups are sold.
It’s become a subject of fascination on Newtown Lane and beyond.
And here’s the thing… the famed “cup count” is surprisingly accurate.
Read on.
HOW THE CUP COUNT CAME TO BE
ALINA CHO: Whose idea was it to do the cup count? Why did you decide to do it?
VALERIE SMITH: I'm slightly mentally ill when it comes to politics. I eat, sleep, and breathe it. It's the biggest whodunnit that you can imagine. Who's going to win it? So, this was just my invention to see what would happen. And it has been reflective of the outcome for George W. Bush and for both of Obama's terms.
ALINA CHO: What about Biden and Trump?
VALERIE SMITH: Biden was the pandemic and I sort-of have amnesia about that because no one was coming in, if I'm not mistaken.
ALINA CHO: Right, right, right.
VALERIE SMITH: I mean, I honestly can't remember.
ALINA CHO: Who makes the cups?
VALERIE SMITH: A place in Texas.
ALINA CHO: And do you design them?
VALERIE SMITH: I go online and look for logos and send it to them and the rest is their problem.
ALINA CHO: How much do you charge for a cup, by the way?
VALERIE SMITH: Three dollars. And they go in the dishwasher, so they're not disposable.
TRUMP VS. HARRIS — WHO’S LEADING THE CUP COUNT RIGHT NOW?
ALINA CHO: How many cups do you order at a time?
VALERIE SMITH: Well, that's been interesting because in the past, the spread has been 100 here, 100 there. I mean, it's always been close. There's never been a spread like this. Both the spread before Biden dropped out and the spread the minute Kamala was made the nominee.
ALINA CHO: What happened?
VALERIE SMITH: It was like [about] five to one, Trump [over] Biden, that overnight turned into [about] five to one, Harris [over] Trump.
ALINA CHO: Wow.
VALERIE SMITH: I’ve never seen this kind of volume. When it was finally understood that Kamala would be the nominee, I didn't know where we were going with this. I ordered 800 cups. I thought that was kind-of safe.
ALINA CHO: Right.
VALERIE SMITH: So, those Kamala cups came in. 800. And I sold them in 24 hours. In 24 hours.
ALINA CHO: How many do you order at a time now?
VALERIE SMITH: So, then I ordered 4000. And I'm still nervous.
ALINA CHO: Are you nearly out?
VALERIE SMITH: No, we have a good bucket now, and I have another 1500 coming later in the week.
WHY THE CUP COUNT BEATS ANY POLL
ALINA CHO: This is a real barometer.
VALERIE SMITH: It's a barometer because it really doesn't have anything to do with East Hampton Village, which is what a lot of people misunderstand.
ALINA CHO: What do you mean?
VALERIE SMITH: It has to do with the fact that there are so many houseguests here all summer long.
ALINA CHO: From all over.
VALERIE SMITH: All over the country, all over the world. A lot of Europeans buy the cups. They're fascinated. And they've mostly been buying Harris because, well, I don't know why.
ALINA CHO: Interesting.
VALERIE SMITH: So, there's not only houseguests. There are people from all over the country who own houses, who rent houses, hence all these diverse houseguests in the population. What's walking the streets of East Hampton during the June, July, August, summer months are not the people who live in the village…
ALINA CHO: … in the off season.
VALERIE SMITH: I think it’s fair to say there are people from Florida, North Carolina, California, Minnesota, from all of these states all over the country. So, it's not as parochial a survey as people would imagine.
ALINA CHO: No, it's a true cross-section.
VALERIE SMITH: It's a true cross-section. And it's taken me this many years to realize that and understand why. At first I thought it was just kind of magic. And then it turned into, no, there's logic to this. It makes sense.
DO PEOPLE TRY TO MANIPULATE THE COUNT?
ALINA CHO: How many cups does the average person come in and buy?
VALERIE SMITH: The average person, I'd say there are a lot of ones.
ALINA CHO: One cup?
VALERIE SMITH: Yes. But more likely between six, eight, 10, 12.
ALINA CHO: That makes sense to me.
VALERIE SMITH: And then, there's the fifty cup person. Not very many of those. Mostly, it's a hundred people buying the smaller number of cups.
ALINA CHO: Interesting. Are there people who come in and try to...
VALERIE SMITH: Manipulate the count?
ALINA CHO: Yeah.
VALERIE SMITH: When George W. Bush was running, the Bush people — and this happened at least a dozen times — the Bush guys, all guys, would come in and say, “I don't like those numbers on the window. [The daily tally is posted on the outside window]. Give me a hundred Bush cups.”
ALINA CHO: Interesting.
VALERIE SMITH: “No problem, sir!”
ALINA CHO: People get so riled up, don't they? What is the craziest thing somebody has said to you about the cups?
VALERIE SMITH: I was very apprehensive about doing it this year because of the fraught environment [we live in]…
ALINA CHO: Oh, you thought you might be targeted or something.
VALERIE SMITH: Yes. So, I did “Let Us Pray 2024” cups in February, not knowing how much praying we were going to have to do.
ALINA CHO: And how many of those have you sold?
VALERIE SMITH: More than a thousand.
AND THE WINNER IS… ?
ALINA CHO: Based on your cup count, if you are calling the race today, who are you calling it for?
VALERIE SMITH: Absolutely. I'm calling it for Kamala and Walz.
ALINA CHO: Have you ever been wrong?
VALERIE SMITH: Yeah, yeah, 2016.
ALINA CHO: 2016, you were wrong?
VALERIE SMITH: But the cups don't know about the electoral college.
ALINA CHO: Ha!
VALERIE SMITH: It's not their fault. They didn't finish social studies.